A mosquito-borne parasitic disease that kills mostly young children in sub-Saharan Africa. Prevention works and is cheap; progress stalled after 2015 and resistance is growing on two fronts at once.
What would have to be true
Milestone
Baseline
Latest
Target
By
Progress
Status
Cut malaria mortality by 90 per cent against 2015annual deaths
577,000 deaths
597,000 deaths
58,000 deaths
2030
0%
stalled
Progress is the distance travelled from baseline to target, not the
share of the target reached. A milestone that began near its goal has
not made 90 per cent of the progress.
What works, and what you can do
donor
Fund insecticide-treated nets and seasonal chemoprevention
Give to programmes distributing nets and seasonal preventive medicine to children in high-transmission areas.
Both are among the most rigorously evaluated public health interventions that exist.
trial
Effort one decision
· Cost any amount
What is unsettled
How fast is insecticide and drug resistance eroding current gains?
Resistance is spreading in both the mosquito and the parasite. How much of the post-2015 plateau is resistance and how much is funding is contested.
What would settle it
Resistance surveillance reported on the same geography and cadence as case data.